ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – May 2024

Compared with April 2024:

  • median consumer inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months and inflation expectations for the next 12 months and for three years ahead all edged down further;
  • expectations for nominal income and spending growth over the next 12 months declined;
  • expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged, while the
  • expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased; expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months remained unchanged, while expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead edged down.

Published on 1 July 2024

Inflation

The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months edged down slightly in May to 4.9%, from 5.0% in April. Meanwhile, median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months edged down further to 2.8%, from 2.9% in April. They are now at their lowest level since September 2021. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead also edged down further to 2.3%, from 2.4% in April. Inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons remained below the perceived past inflation rate. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months decreased to its lowest level since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation expectations than older respondents (those aged 35-54 and those aged 55-70). (Inflation results)

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ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results... (PDF - 311 Ko)

Updated on 1 July 2024