1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options
Financial market developments
Ms Schnabel noted that since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 6-7 March 2024 financial markets had started to price in some divergence between the monetary policy paths expected in the euro area and in the United States. This was reflected in a widening interest rate differential. In the United States, a series of solid economic data releases had signalled the US economy’s resilience to the current levels of interest rates. This had led financial markets to expect the timing of a first interest rate cut to be later and the overall extent of monetary policy easing to be less than previously anticipated.
In the euro area, by contrast, expectations regarding the path of the ECB’s monetary policy had changed to a lesser extent. Owing to the Governing Council’s communication and incoming euro area economic data, spillovers of US rate expectations to the short end of the euro area yield curve had remained contained. Investors saw almost no chance of a rate cut at the present meeting, but had fully priced in a rate cut for June, followed by another two rate cuts later in the year. This was in line with evidence from the April round of the Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA).
