These shocks are having contrasting effects across sectors. Industry and construction are being hardest hit by supply challenges and higher prices for raw materials. Personal services, meanwhile, are benefiting as the health situation gets back to normal and international customers return.
According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments surveyed between 27 April and 4 May), activity was broadly stable in industry in April and improved in the market services covered by the survey. Construction recorded a slight downturn.
- For the month of May, business leaders expect activity to grow in market services and at a slower pace in industry, and show little change in the construction sector. However, this outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty, even if our uncertainty indicator is down from last month’s reading.
- Against this backdrop, supply difficulties rose sharply again in industry, where they affected 65% of companies, after 60% in March, and were roughly unchanged in construction, impacting 54% of companies, down from 55% in March.
- Recruitment difficulties have been at the same level since December but continue to affect just over half of all companies.
In connection with these difficulties, industrial firms said that they were raising their selling prices more frequently in response to persistent pressures on raw materials prices.After rebounding vigorously in the second half of 2021, GDP stalled in the first quarter of 2022 owing to the effects of the Omicron wave and the initial impacts of the war in Ukraine. It grew slightly in April compared with March on the back of increased activity in the market services sector.
The initial indications are that activity will hold up in May. Subject to developments in June, at this stage we expect GDP to grow moderately in the second quarter of 2022, increasing by around 0.2% compared with the previous quarter.
