According to the business leaders questioned, activity rose in December in industry and in those market services covered by the survey, while in construction the increase was more moderate.
For January, surveyed businesses expect activity to increase very slightly in industry (except in the automotive sector and in computer, electronic and optical products due to component supply difficulties), and to remain stable in construction. In market services, activity is expected to vary considerably across sectors, with some seeing a marked decline linked to the public health situation (accommodation and food service activities, events management, etc.), and business services, in contrast, remaining robust. With the resurgence of the epidemic, however, business leaders signalled that uncertainty has started to rise sharply again, meaning that their expectations should be interpreted with greater caution than usual.
Du fait de la nouvelle flambée épidémique, les entreprises signalent toutefois un regain significatif d’incertitude qui doit conduire à interpréter avec une plus grande précaution qu’habituellement leurs anticipations :
Recruitment difficulties remain significant and are affecting around half of businesses (52% after 21% in November). Supply difficulties have eased to some extent in industry (53% of businesses affected, down from 56% in November), and declined more markedly in construction (48% of businesses affected after 58% in November). The slight dampening of pressures on supply chains and on raw material prices has led the balance of opinion on price developments to stabilise, albeit at a high level. For January (which is traditionally when many firms revise their prices) the share of business leaders who anticipate a rise in prices is much greater than in previous years, in line with our expectations. The price information provided by business leaders in the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) at the start of January 2022 is in line with our most recent inflation forecasts published in mid-December 2021.
After returning to its pre-crisis level over the third quarter of 2021, GDP is now expected to exceed this level by ¾ of a percentage point in December. GDP should increase by around 0.6% in the fourth quarter compared with the previous three months, confirming our forecast for annual average growth of 6.7% in 2021. Our expectation of a stabilisation of activity in January is also consistent with our baseline projection scenario for 2022.
