Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2025
- Headline inflation expectations revised up slightly for 2025-26 but unchanged for 2027 and the long term
- Expectations for HICP inflation excluding energy and food revised up slightly across all horizons
- Impacts of tariffs and defence spending main factors behind revisions to inflation and growth expectations
- Real GDP growth expectations revised down by 0.1 percentage points for 2025 and 2026 but up by 0.1 percentage points for 2027; longer-term expectations unchanged
- Unemployment rate expectations revised down slightly for 2025, 2026 and the longer term
Published on the 22nd of April 2025
Respondents’ expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), were 2.2% for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026 and 2027. Expectations were revised up by 0.1 percentage points for 2025 and 2026 compared with the previous survey (conducted in the first quarter of 2025) but were unchanged for 2027. Expectations for core HICP inflation, which exclude energy and food, were revised up slightly across all horizons. Longer-term expectations for headline inflation were unchanged at 2.0%, while those for core HICP inflation were revised up slightly to 2.0%.
Respondents expected real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. Compared with the previous survey, expectations were revised down by 0.1 percentage points for 2025-26 but up by 0.1 percentage points for 2027. Longer-term growth expectations remained unchanged at 1.3%.
The expected trajectory of the unemployment rate was revised slightly downwards. The unemployment rate is expected to average 6.3% from 2025 to 2027, and then to fall to 6.2% in the longer term.
Table: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2025
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)
2) As a percentage of the labour force.
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Updated on the 22nd of April 2025