The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which only covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 4.7% in 2024 (based on an average coverage of 48.2% of employees in participating countries) and 3.3% in 2025 (based on an average coverage of 40.5%). The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates average negotiated wage growth of 4.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. The steeply downward trend of the forward-looking wage tracker in 2025 partly reflects the mechanical impact of large one-off payments (that were paid in 2024, but drop out in 2025) and the front-loaded nature of wage increases in some sectors in 2024. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates negotiated wage growth of 4.1% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025. See Chart 1 and Table 1 for further details.
The ECB wage tracker may be subject to revisions, and the forward-looking part should not be interpreted as a forecast as it only captures information in a more limited share of active collective bargaining agreements. As new agreements are made throughout the year, the growth rates indicated by the wage tracker are subject to change.
For a more comprehensive assessment of wage developments in the euro area, please refer to the March 2025 macroeconomic projection exercise, which indicates a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee in the euro area of 4.6% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, with a quarterly profile in 2025 of 3.8% in the first quarter, 3.7% in the second quarter, 3.4% in the third quarter and 2.8% in the fourth quarter.
The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of seven participating euro area countries on the ECB Data Portal.