Inflation
The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months decreased in February to 3.1%, from 3.4% in January. This is its lowest level since September 2021. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months were unchanged at 2.6%, as were those for inflation three years ahead at 2.4%. Inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons thus remained below the perceived past inflation rate. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months decreased slightly in February to its lowest level since January 2022. While the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups, over the previous year and a half inflation perceptions and expectations for lower income quintiles were, on average, slightly above those for higher income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (those aged 35-54 and 55-70), albeit to a lesser degree than in previous years. (Inflation results)
Income and consumption
Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months increased to 1.0% in February from 0.9% in January. Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months decreased further to 4.9% in February, from 5.1% in January and 5.2% in December. This decrease was observed across most income groups. Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months also decreased to 3.5% in February, the same value as in December, from 3.6% in January. (Income and consumption results)
Economic growth and labour market
Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months were more negative, standing at -1.2%, compared with -1.1% in January, but still above the December value of -1.3%. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 10.5%, the same as in December, from 10.4% in January. Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.0%), implying a broadly stable labour market. Expectations for both economic growth and the unemployment rate remained broadly stable in the previous fourth months, fluctuating within a narrow range. (Economic growth and labour market results)