ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – August 2024

Inflation

The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months declined further in August to 3.9%, from 4.1% in July. Perceptions of past inflation have thus declined by 4.5 percentage points since their peak of 8.4% in September 2023. Meanwhile, inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons remained below the perceived past inflation rate. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months edged down to 2.7%, from 2.8% previously, and stood at their lowest level since September 2021. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead edged down by 0.1 percentage points in August to 2.3%, back to their June level. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged at its lowest level since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. While the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups, expectations for lower income quintiles were slightly above those for higher income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (those aged 35-54 and 55-70).