ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – April 2024

Compared with March 2024:

  • median consumer inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months were unchanged, while median inflation expectations for the next 12 months and for three years ahead both edged down;
  • expectations for nominal income growth and nominal spending growth over the next 12 months remained stable;
  • expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became less negative, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time was higher;
  • expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months increased, while expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead remained unchanged.

Published on 28 May 2024

Inflation

The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months was unchanged at 5.0%. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months edged down to 2.9%, from 3.0% in March. They are now at their lowest level since September 2021. At the same time, median expectations for inflation three years ahead edged down to 2.4%, from 2.5% in March. Inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons remained below the perceived past inflation rate. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged. Developments in inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups, albeit somewhat lower for the highest income quintile. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation expectations than older respondents (those aged 35-54 and those aged 55-70), although there was a convergence of inflation perceptions across age groups.

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ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results... (PDF - 84 Ko)

Updated on 28 May 2024