Monthly Business Survey – Start of September 2024

According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 28 August and 4 September), activity in August picked up in industry and more significantly in market services, partly due to the Paris Olympics, while it fell slightly in construction, due to more days of holiday than in previous years. According to business expectations for September, activity should pick up slightly in industry and services, while little change is expected in construction. Order books are still deemed weak in virtually all industrial sectors (with the notable exception of aeronautics). In the automotive sector, for the past two months, business leaders have reported a decline in the demand for electric vehicles, in favour of a return to ICEs and hybrid vehicles. Our uncertainty indicator based on comments by surveyed companies has changed little in industry and services, and risen slightly in construction.

Selling prices continued to moderate. The share of businesses that increased their prices last month was slightly below pre-Covid August levels in industry and construction, but still slightly above these levels in services.

Recruitment difficulties increased slightly this month: they were cited by 36% of businesses in August, compared with 33% in July. This increase is attributable to market services.

Based on the survey results as well as other indicators, we forecast significant GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting underlying growth of around 0.1% to 0.2%, plus the temporary impact of the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games, which should add another quarter point. This forecast, unchanged from last month, is subject to both upside risks, linked to possible spillover effects from the Olympic Games, and downside risks stemming from the political uncertainty.