According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 29 January 2024 and 5 February 2025, before the final adoption of the French government’s budget on 6 February),activity in industry and construction recovered by more than expected last month, and also continued to trend upwards in market services at a higher rate than that expected by businesses. In February, business leaders expect activity to be less buoyant: stable in industry, down slightly in construction and down significantly in market services. Order books are deemed to be weak across all industrial sectors, with the exception of aeronautics. They remain especially depressed in the structural works sector.
Our uncertainty indicator based on comments from companies has increased once again and more sharply in the construction sector.
In particular, the responses mention the uncertain political climate both domestically (economic and fiscal policies) and internationally (fears over higher customs tariffs, especially in the United States).
January is generally a month for reviewing prices. However, the proportion of companies that increased their prices this month was, on the whole, significantly lower than in the last three years, and close to or lower than in the pre-Covid period. Recruitment difficulties continue to abate across all three sectors.
Based on the survey results as well as other indicators, we estimate that activity should increase slightly in the first quarter of 2025, by between 0.1% and 0.2%.
