IBFI

Macroeconomic forecasting

Published on the 21st of January 2025

This seminar will cover the data, models and processes used by a central bank to produce forecasts, particularly in the context of Euro-system projection exercises. Presentations and discussions will cover exercises ranging from the very short term (including nowcasting) to long-term horizons. Projections of economic activity, inflation, public finances, international trade, and climatic risks will be addressed.

Apply
Dates : June 23-25, 2025
Apply before : April 23, 2025
Language: English
Location: Paris
Contact: Luwana SCHALL
E-mail: IBFI_ecostat@banque-france.fr

Program

Content

The seminar will address in particular the following topics:
• How to organize an integrated forecasting process
• FR-BDF, the semi-structural forecasting model of Banque de France
• Use of surveys and nowcasting models
• Forecasting in times of crisis
• Inflation forecast
• Fiscal forecast
• Assessment of the international environment
• Post-mortems of macroeconomic forecasts produced with large models

Participants

This seminar is intended mainly for central bank economists. There are not ex ante analytical requirements, but a basic knowledge of econometric methods and some experience in modelling will help take full advantage of this training. The attendees are expected to interact actively during the seminar, answering on-line surveys and quizzes and assessing the sessions.

Updated on the 21st of January 2025

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Content

Participants