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Interim macroeconomic projections –September 2024

Published on the 18th of September 2024

Mosaïques d'hexagones avec avec en fond des symboles de réseau et d'analyse

In order to contribute to the national and European economic debate, the Banque de France periodically publishes macroeconomic forecasts for France, constructed as part of the Eurosystem projection exercise and covering the current and two forthcoming years. Some of the publications also include an in-depth analysis of the results, along with focus articles on topics of interest.

  • These interim projections are based on the usual assumption of an unchanged economic policy in the current political context. They confirm the decline in headline and core inflation that we forecast in our previous projections. HICP inflation is expected to fall significantly from 5.7% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024, and 1.5% in 2025 – mainly due to the announced drop in electricity prices – and to remain low at 1.7% in 2026. After a temporary interruption in the second half of 2024, services inflation should continue to ease, allowing core inflation to drop to 1.9% in 2026.
     
  • As a result of this disinflation, wages are now rising faster than consumer prices, a trend that could intensify in 2025. This increase in real wages should sustain gains in purchasing power and then consumption next year. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly in 2025, before resuming its downward trend thanks to the recovery in activity, to stand at 7.3% at the end of 2026.
     
  • When compared with June, INSEE's revisions to the quarterly national accounts for 2023 and early 2024 mechanically increase forecast average annual growth for 2024 (from 0.8% to 1.1%). In the second half of the year, the adverse effect of increased uncertainty should be temporarily offset by the favourable effect of the Olympic Games. Looking beyond 2024, while forecast growth remains unchanged for 2025 (at 1.2%), it has been revised downwards slightly for 2026 (to 1.5%). 
     
  • This projection is subject to a large degree of uncertainty. First, the current political uncertainty in France represents a risk to the assumptions relating to public finances and to the impact of the wait-and-see tendancy among businesses and households. Second, this uncertainty is compounded by geopolitical risks (war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, trade tensions, etc.) and their effects on commodity prices and international trade.

Updated on the 18th of September 2024